Publications / 2000 Proceedings of the 17th ISARC, Taipei, Taiwan
The lack of confidence in the selection of a Probability Distribution Function (PDF) to depict an activity duration has limited the use of simulation as a tool for constructors. The PDF used for a construction simulation should be continuous, limited between two positive time intercepts, and with a unique mode in its defined range. The beta PDF satisfies these conditions. It is recommended that the subjective information used to define beta parameters include the minimum and maximum activity durations, as well as the mode and the 75th or 25th percentiles. This paper presents a formulation for developing a Beta PDF that can be used in construction process control, automation or for simulation modeling.