PUBLIC CIVIL ENGINEERING PROJECTS - BETTER THAN THEIR REPUTATION?

Christian Koch; Nicolaj Frederiksen

Abstract:

While awaiting the final cost and time overrun for the Stuttgart's new central station?yet another complex megaproject seemingly gone wrong?a broader look at civil engineering projects might reveal a different pattern. The Danish Auditor General analysed 41 civil engineering projects in Denmark (railroads, stations, motorways, bridges, etc.) costing ?10,3B in 2024. 60% were delayed, mostly due to changes in the specification of deliveries. 18% exceeded budget, whereas 47% ended under budget by more than 10%, primarily due to the lack of requested changes. Adopting a complexity perspective, this paper scrutinizes how complexity occurs in civil engineering projects. A framework for understanding complexity is developed, juxtaposing four approaches. First the Flyvbjergian notion of the "iron law of megaprojects," arguing that complexity stems from issues inherent in the project surroundings. Second Barnes' notion "the iron triangle," viewing complexity as inherently within projects. Third, Kreiner's notion of "drifting environments," where complexity emerges from changing conditions in the project surroundings. Fourth and final, the notion of the "hiding hand," positing that complexity emerges inside the project. An analysis of the 41 Danish civil engineering projects concludes that projects do not go wrong but rather feature a diverse set of outcomes. Complexity is then proposed as a rhetorical device used by professionals and importantly leading as often to positive as to negative results. This suggests that civil engineering projects as such may be better than their reputation implies.