Publications / 2003 Proceedings of the 20th ISARC, Eindhoven, Holland

A Risk Model for Pile Foundations

Thomas Bles, Saad Al-Jibouri, Jeroen van den Adel
Pages 421-426 (2003 Proceedings of the 20th ISARC, Eindhoven, Holland, ISBN 978-90-6814-574-8, ISSN 2413-5844)

This paper describes a model which has been developed for the purpose of assessing major risks associated with various pile foundation types and their resulting financial consequences. The work is based on a review of possible geotechnical sources of risks encountered during the placing of pile foundations. Both literature and experts are used in order to compile lists of risks associated with the different types of piling methods. The model is intended to support geotechnical designers or contractors in making sound decisions as to the selection of piling foundation types that are appropriate to the specific situations at hand.

The study has identified four major groups of risk events that can be possibly encountered when producing a specific pile foundation type; damage to surroundings, damage to the piles themselves, incorrect piles placements and damage to equipments.

The study has also identified the parameters that have influence on the presence and magnitude of the undesired events. The research uses influence diagrams to model these events and to create what is termed as a risk network. A computer program, based on Bayesian probabilistic approach, is used to produce such a network whereby risks can be quantified in terms of costs and delays.

The paper describes application of the model and draws conclusions on the results produced and the usefulness of the developed model as a tool for supporting design and construction decisions.

Keywords: Risk model, Geotechnical design, Pile foundations