The Use of Earned Value in Forcasting Project Durations

This paper highlights the limitations of the current applications of EVM method in forecasting project durations and introduces a novel concept, embedded in an integrated method, in lieu of those currently in use. The proposed method is designed to improve the accuracy of forecasting, and can be used as an add-on utility to existing software systems that perform forecasting using the earned value method. The proposed method is based on a new formulation for the schedule performance index, which takes into consideration the concurrent nature of project activities in schedules and the manner used to generate cumulative progress. The main concepts behind the developed method are the use of “critical project baseline” and the use the status of critical activities only. A numerical example is presented to highlight the limitations of current forecasting methods and demonstrate the use of the proposed method and to illustrate its improvement of forecasting accuracy over current methods.